萊索托王國(guó)，一個(gè)位于南非高原的貧困山國(guó)，在特朗普政府實(shí)施的“對(duì)等關(guān)稅”政策下被加征了高達(dá)50%的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅。

對(duì)于這個(gè)世界上最貧窮的國(guó)家之一，這是毀滅性的打擊。有分析師悲觀預(yù)測(cè)稱，工廠會(huì)關(guān)閉，工人會(huì)失業(yè)，“整個(gè)紡織行業(yè)將會(huì)消亡”。該國(guó)近一半的出口額或?qū)⒁虼讼А?/p>

萊索托既非經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)手，也非戰(zhàn)略威脅，只因太窮了買不起美國(guó)出口商品，造成對(duì)美貿(mào)易順差，就被征收了接近最高上限的關(guān)稅稅率。

這個(gè)荒誕又悲哀的案例，被4月3日《大西洋月刊》的評(píng)論文章引為佐證，說(shuō)明美國(guó)當(dāng)前的關(guān)稅政策有多么荒唐，完全是特朗普毫無(wú)邏輯的個(gè)性的延伸（an extension of Trump's chaotic personality）。

該文作者德里克·湯普森（Derek Thompson）諷刺地點(diǎn)評(píng)道，要理解美國(guó)當(dāng)前貿(mào)易政策，最合適的一句話是：“沒(méi)人知道是怎么回事”（Nobody knows anything）。

The most fitting analysis for this moment, however, does not come from an economist or a financial researcher. It comes from the screenwriter William Goldman, who pithily captured his industry's lack of foresight with one of the most famous aphorisms in Hollywood history: "Nobody knows anything."

特朗普關(guān)稅政策的邏輯矛盾

湯普森犀利地指出，特朗普的關(guān)稅政策“與其說(shuō)是經(jīng)濟(jì)理論，不如說(shuō)是達(dá)達(dá)主義藝術(shù)（Dadaist）——用荒誕的方式質(zhì)疑專業(yè)存在的必要性”。

各方對(duì)關(guān)稅目標(biāo)的解釋自相矛盾：貿(mào)易顧問(wèn)彼得·納瓦羅（Peter Navarro）宣稱這是“美國(guó)史上最大增稅計(jì)劃”，科技界親特朗普人士帕爾默·拉奇（Palmer Luckey）聲稱其終極目標(biāo)是“通過(guò)迫使各國(guó)在懲罰性關(guān)稅面前取消現(xiàn)有貿(mào)易壁壘，最終實(shí)現(xiàn)完全自由貿(mào)易”，而經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)斯蒂芬·米蘭（Stephen Miran）則將其視為“通過(guò)美元貶值和重振美國(guó)制造業(yè)就業(yè)，重新平衡美國(guó)與全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系”的宏偉計(jì)劃。

然而，這三個(gè)目標(biāo)——增加財(cái)政收入、恢復(fù)自由貿(mào)易和調(diào)整全球經(jīng)濟(jì)——本就是相互矛盾的。這進(jìn)一步說(shuō)明這些關(guān)稅沒(méi)有一個(gè)統(tǒng)一連貫的解釋。

These three alleged goals — raising revenue, restoring free trade, and rejiggering the global economy — are incompatible with one another. 

首先，增加財(cái)政收入與恢復(fù)自由貿(mào)易相互排斥：一項(xiàng)旨在自我消亡的征稅政策不可能長(zhǎng)期充實(shí)國(guó)庫(kù)；其次，自由貿(mào)易主張與制造業(yè)復(fù)興目標(biāo)相背離：若想實(shí)現(xiàn)再工業(yè)化，就不可能繼續(xù)依賴當(dāng)初導(dǎo)致鐵銹地帶（美國(guó)東北部-五大湖附近蕭條的工業(yè)區(qū)）衰落的全球貿(mào)易放任政策。自由貿(mào)易要么是需要捍衛(wèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)樂(lè)土，要么就是亟待摧毀的詛咒性政治秩序。

The first and second explanations are mutually exclusive: The state can't raise tax revenue in the long run with a levy that is designed to disappear. The second and third explanations are mutually exclusive too: You can't reindustrialize by doubling down on the global-trade free-for-all that supposedly immiserated the Rust Belt in the first place. Either global free trade is an economic Valhalla worth fighting for, or it's the cursed political order that we're trying desperately to destroy.

更荒誕的在于關(guān)稅的計(jì)算方式：所謂“對(duì)等”關(guān)稅，既非鏡像復(fù)制他國(guó)關(guān)稅水平，亦非平衡雙邊貿(mào)易流量，而是一套獨(dú)特的算法。特朗普?qǐng)F(tuán)隊(duì)似乎是基于美國(guó)與某國(guó)的貿(mào)易逆差除以從該國(guó)進(jìn)口的總額，再經(jīng)過(guò)粗略調(diào)整，得出新關(guān)稅。

The Trump team seems to have calculated each penalty by dividing the US trade deficit with a given country by how much the US imports from it and then doing a rough adjustment. 

在這種計(jì)算方式下，無(wú)人居住的赫德島（Heard island）、麥克唐納群島（McDonald Islands）被加征10%關(guān)稅，而駐有美英軍隊(duì)的英屬印度洋領(lǐng)地（British Indian Ocean Territory）同樣上榜。

以萊索托為例，該國(guó)對(duì)美出口價(jià)值2.37億美元的鉆石與其他商品，同時(shí)，由于該國(guó)貧困，無(wú)力購(gòu)買大多數(shù)美國(guó)出口商品，造成美國(guó)對(duì)萊索托的貿(mào)易逆差。逆差與進(jìn)口額之比畸高，經(jīng)公式運(yùn)算后得出50%的新關(guān)稅。

湯普森諷刺道：“認(rèn)為美國(guó)必須對(duì)萊索托寶石征稅才能在俄亥俄州增加鋼鐵就業(yè)崗位的觀點(diǎn)荒謬至極，荒謬到我寫(xiě)到這句話時(shí)都差點(diǎn)昏厥過(guò)去?！?/p>

The Trump team seems to have calculated each penalty by dividing the US trade deficit with a given country by how much the US imports from it and then doing a rough adjustment. Because Lesotho's citizens are too poor to afford most US exports, while the US imports $237 million in diamonds and other goods from the small landlocked nation, we have reserved close to our highest-possible tariff rate for one of the world's poorest countries. The notion that taxing Lesotho gemstones is necessary for the US to add steel jobs in Ohio is so absurd that I briefly lost consciousness in the middle of writing this sentence.   

當(dāng)國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)淪為個(gè)性試驗(yàn)場(chǎng)

這暴露了特朗普關(guān)稅政策的本質(zhì)——它無(wú)關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)理性，而是“特朗普人格在整個(gè)政府內(nèi)部的轉(zhuǎn)移蔓延”（all-of-government metastasis of Trump's personality）。

If the tariffs violate their own internal logic and basic common sense, what are they? Most likely, they represent little more than the all-of-government metastasis of Trump's personality, which sees grandiosity as a strategy to pull counterparties to the negotiating table and strike deals that benefit Trump's ego or wallet.

正如特朗普在《交易的藝術(shù)》中坦承的個(gè)人哲學(xué)：“瞄準(zhǔn)極高目標(biāo)，不斷施壓，直到獲得我想要的?！边@種思維，使得關(guān)稅成為權(quán)力和杠桿的無(wú)限游戲。

This personality style is clear, and it has been clearly stated, even if its application to geopolitics is confounding to observe. "My style of deal-making is pretty simple and straightforward," Trump writes in The Art of the Deal. "I aim very high, and then l just keep pushing and pushing and pushing to get what I'm after. Sometimes I settle for less than I sought but in most cases I still end up with what I want."

特朗普支持者將這種“混亂戰(zhàn)術(shù)”美化為“打破支離破碎的體系”，但湯普森尖銳指出其代價(jià)：經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)需要正和與長(zhǎng)期規(guī)劃（positive-sum and long-term-oriented），而特朗普的個(gè)性始終是零和且急功近利的（zero-sum and urgent）。

“當(dāng)我們的貿(mào)易政策似乎每月都可能因特朗普親自與全球各國(guó)談判而改變時(shí)，一家紡織公司真的會(huì)想在美國(guó)開(kāi)設(shè)工廠嗎？在‘解放日關(guān)稅’引發(fā)全球拋售，導(dǎo)致國(guó)際衰退時(shí)，制造業(yè)企業(yè)真的應(yīng)該投資昂貴的工廠擴(kuò)建嗎？”

Trump's defenders praise the president for using chaos to shake up broken systems. But they fail to see the downside of uncertainty.

ls a textile company really supposed to open a US factory when our trade policy seems likely to change every month as Trump personally negotiates with the entire planet? Are manufacturing firms really supposed to invest in expensive factory expansions when the Liberation Day tariffs caused a global sell-off that signals an international downturn? Trump's personality is, and has always been, zero-sum and urgent, craving chaos, but economic growth is positive-sum and long-term-oriented, craving certainty for its largest investments. 

萊索托的高額關(guān)稅，最終照見(jiàn)的是一個(gè)被個(gè)性統(tǒng)治的貿(mào)易體系。當(dāng)財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)的回答是“我們只能拭目以待”，當(dāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策成為達(dá)達(dá)主義藝術(shù)品，當(dāng)“威脅、杠桿、讓步、重復(fù)”（threat, leverage, concession, repeat）的劇本在整個(gè)社會(huì)和國(guó)際貿(mào)易中上演，正如湯普森所說(shuō)：“最可怕的不是關(guān)稅數(shù)字，而是數(shù)字背后的信息——我們都活在這位總統(tǒng)的腦子里，而那里，沒(méi)人知道是怎么回事?！?/p>

The scariest thing about the Trump tariffs isn't the numbers, but the underlying message. We're all living inside the president's head, and nobody knows anything.

編輯：左卓

見(jiàn)習(xí)編輯：裴禧盈

來(lái)源：大西洋月刊 中國(guó)新聞網(wǎng) 國(guó)際在線